Optimal designs for multivariable spline models

In this paper, we investigate optimal designs for multivariate additive spline regressionmodels. We assume that the knot locations are unknown, so must be estimated from thedata. In this situation, the Fisher information for the full parameter vector depends on theunknown knot locations, resulting in a non-linear design problem. We show that locally,Bayesian and maximin D-optimal designs can be found as the products of the optimaldesigns in one dimension. A similar result is proven for Q-optimality in the class of allproduct design

Multivariate emulation of computer simulators: model selection and diagnostics with application to a humanitarian relief model

We present a common framework for Bayesian emulation methodologies for multivariate-output simulators, or computer models, that employ either parametric linear models or nonparametric Gaussian processes. Novel diagnostics suitable for multivariate covariance-separable emulators are developed and techniques to improve the adequacy of an emulator are discussed and implemented. A variety of emulators are compared for a humanitarian relief simulator, modelling aid missions to Sicily after a volcanic eruption and earthquake, and a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulator output to changes in the input variables. The results from parametric and nonparametric emulators are compared in terms of prediction accuracy, uncertainty quantification and scientific interpretability

Evidence-Based Psychosocial Treatments for Pediatric Body-Focused Repetitive Behavior Disorders

Habits, such as hair pulling and thumb sucking, have recently been grouped into a category of clinical conditions called body-focused repetitive behavior disorders (BFRBDs). These behaviors are common in children and, at extreme levels, can cause physical and psychological damage. This article reviews the evidence base for psychosocial treatment of pediatric BFRBDs. A review of academic databases and published reviews revealed 60 studies on psychosocial treatments for pediatric BFRBDs, 23 of which were deemed suitable for review. Based on stringent methodological and evidence base criteria, we provided recommendations for each specific BFRBD. Individual behavior therapy proved probably efficacious for thumb sucking, possibly efficacious for several conditions, and experimental for nail biting. Individual and multicomponent cognitive-behavioral therapy was named experimental for trichotillomania and nail biting, respectively. No treatment met criteria for well-established status in the treatment of any BFRBD. Recommendations for clinicians are discussed. Reasons for the limitations of existing research in children and adolescents are explored. Several recommendations are presented for future pediatric treatment research on BFRBDs

A comparison of design and model selection methods for supersaturated experiments

Various design and model selection methods are available for supersatu-rated designs having more factors than runs but little research is available ontheir comparison and evaluation. In this paper, simulated experiments areused to evaluate the use of E(s2)-optimal and Bayesian D-optimal designs,and to compare three analysis strategies representing regression, shrinkageand a novel model-averaging procedure. Suggestions are made for choosingthe values of the tuning constants for each approach. Findings include that(i) the preferred analysis is via shrinkage; (ii) designs with similar numbersof runs and factors can be effective for a considerable number of active effectsof only moderate size; and (iii) unbalanced designs can perform well. Somecomments are made on the performance of the design and analysis methodswhen effect sparsity does not hol

Model selection via Bayesian information capacity designs for generalised linear models

The first investigation is made of designs for screening experiments where the response variable is approximated by a generalised linear model. A Bayesian information capacity criterion is defined for the selection of designs that are robust to the form of the linear predictor. For binomial data and logistic regression, the effectiveness of these designs for screening is assessed through simulation studies using all-subsets regression and model selection via maximum penalised likelihood and a generalised information criterion. For Poisson data and log-linear regression, similar assessments are made using maximum likelihood and the Akaike information criterion for minimally-supported designs that are constructed analytically. The results show that effective screening, that is, high power with moderate type I error rate and false discovery rate, can be achieved through suitable choices for the number of design support points and experiment size. Logistic regression is shown to present a more challenging problem than log-linear regression. Some areas for future work are also indicated

Bayesian Optimal Design for Ordinary Differential Equation Models

Bayesian optimal design is considered for experiments where it is hypothesised that the responses are described by the intractable solution to a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Bayesian optimal design is based on the minimisation of an expected loss function where the expectation is with respect to all unknown quantities (responses and parameters). This expectation is typically intractable even for simple models before even considering the intractability of the ODE solution. New methodology is developed for this problem that involves minimising a smoothed stochastic approximation to the expected loss and using a state-of-the-art stochastic solution to the ODEs, by treating the ODE solution as an unknown quantity. The methodology is demonstrated on three illustrative examples and a real application involving estimating the properties of human placentas

Abnormal Perceptual Sensitivity in Body-Focused Repetitive Behaviors

Objective Several compulsive grooming habits such as hair pulling, skin picking, and nail biting are collectively known as body-focused repetitive behaviors (BFRBs). Although subclinical BFRBs are common and benign, more severe and damaging manifestations exist that are difficult to manage. Researchers have suggested that BFRBs are maintained by various cognitive, affective, and sensory contingencies. Although the involvement of cognitive and affective processes in BFRBs has been studied, there is a paucity of research on sensory processes. Methods The current study tested whether adults with subclinical or clinical BFRBs would report abnormal patterns of sensory processing as compared to a healthy control sample. Results Adults with clinical BFRBs (n = 26) reported increased sensory sensitivity as compared to persons with subclinical BFRBs (n = 48) and healthy individuals (n = 33). Elevations in sensation avoidance differentiated persons with clinical versus subclinical BFRBs. Sensation seeking patterns were not different between groups. Unexpectedly, BFRB severity was associated with lower registration of sensory stimuli, but this finding may be due to high psychiatric comorbidity rates in the BFRB groups. Conclusions These findings suggest that several sensory abnormalities may underlie BFRBs. Implications for the etiology and treatment of BFRBs are discussed